Wow! I don't think that was quite what anyone expected.
I wasn't planning on making a post about the midterms today since I initially thought the results speak for themselves. But as everything simmered a little more as I woke up after a long night and saw everyone in the media immediately trying to explain what happened, it made me feel like I wanted to share some ramblings about what we should really learn from last night.
Obviously, last night was a major dramatic swing from the results of 2024 and even 2018, but it's truly difficult to comprehend to the scale that this swing happened. Democrats are currently looking at a popular vote victory in the House of around 13 points, a 15 point shift from 2024. This margin was once unthinkable to happen ever again in a now sharply divided America. It seems likely that Democrats will pick up 40 seats and end up somewhere close to a 255-185. One of the craziest flips of the night came from Missouri's 2nd district, representing Franklin County and much of St. Louis County, which had been represented by a Republican for over 30 years.
Not only was the House a massive wave, but the Senate and Governor races also experienced numerous flips. Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and likely Alaska. Kansas and South Carolina delivered the biggest shocks of the night, and somehow we are still waiting for a call in Mississippi.
I also want to highlight the places that didn't flip, but should still be talked about just as much. In Colorado, a swing state a little over 10 years ago looks to have margins for governor and senator of around 35 points. Florida went from electing Ron DeSantis by 20 points to being 3 points away from electing a self-proclaimed socialist. And other red states were even crazier.
Louisiana, which voted for Trump by 23 points in 2024, was 2 points away from a Democratic senator. Alabama, Trump +31%, was 4 points away from a Democratic Governor. Tennessee, Trump +30%, was 2 points away from a Democratic governor. Oklahoma, Trump +34%, was 6 points away from a Democratic governor. The South really had massive shifts that no one thought even remotely possible. These races were possibly winnable by Democrats if they were invested in!
Alright, alright, we know it was a big night. So what does this mean? Well, I want to highlight two of the most important races not necessarily by margins but by who we will have representing us and how they won.
Senator-elect, James Talarico
I'll start with James Talarico who was swept in with about a 12% margin. This means Texas shifted by 25 points from 2024, and a year ago, no one expected this could be anywhere near a possibility. When Talarico came onto the scene, I noticed him immediately. He had a talent unlike any Democrat I had seen before, completely unwavering in his progressive values, yet he could get pretty much anyone he spoke to on his side. There was something about him through his experience learning to be a preacher that made him so kind, and somehow that kindness meant he came across as moderate. He made people excited, and that's why he won the primary.
And flash forward to the election which saw him go up against Ken Paxton, one of the most clearly corrupt politicians of our life time (and that's saying something)! I'm not going to go too into Paxton since he will not be Senator or Attorney General anymore either. But Talarico was the perfect counter to someone like Paxton, who is a clear indicator of everything the Republican party stands for. Trump did endorse him over the incumbent after all. In a moment where they targeted Talarico for being too kind and gentile, acting like it made him trans (what a compliment by the way!), he stayed strong in his values, committing to reach out to everyone where they are. Truly living the Scripture and always taking the question "What would Jesus do?" to heart. If there is anyone that can best unify Texas and our nation going forward as a senator, it is him. Talarico is what we need. I have high hopes for his future.
The other race most important was the Michigan Senate race which had Abdul El-Sayed beat Congressman Mike Rogers by about 7 points. El-Sayed's journey to senator-elect was not easy. In a three way primary, he stood out by being the most honest and unapologetic one. He stood strong on issues like Medicare for All, immigrant and trans rights, and ending aid to Israel, despite Michigan having gone to Trump 2 years earlier. He contrasted himself with his opponents because he was never vague on the policy of how he would work to make Michigan and the US a better place. He faced attacks from the Democrats and Republicans who often called him a supporter of "global jihad", all just because he is Muslim and is against the genocide in Gaza. Ultimately he won his primary by 1% against Haley Stevens who had over $30 million dollars spent on her behalf from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
But despite his primary being close, he didn't waiver. The Islamophobic attacks kept on coming, but instead of letting people continue to make them, he fought back. And because he never compromised his values Haley Stevens endorsed Mike Rogers two days before the election despite having previously said that the Senate majority was more important than anything. But it didn't work; El-Sayed still won.
Seeing El-Sayed stay strong on everything he has always advocated for was what made me realize how important his race was. He doesn't just agree with me on a lot of policy, but he is what the Democratic party has been severely lacking for a long time: a fighter. It's uplifting knowing that even if the Democrats let us down just like they did in 2024, they have someone in Congress to hold his colleagues to account. El-Sayed is the type of person we haven't had in the Senate ever before in so many ways. El-Sayed is what we need.
Victory speech of Senator-elect, Abdul El-Sayed
Ultimately, the media is going to focus a lot on whether or not the Democrats won or Republicans and Trump lost. Whatever! We the American people won, not because we know what is going to happen in the upcoming years, but because this is the most unifying political moment in decades and definitely my time paying attention to politics. We finally have a message shared by so many candidates of cutting costs for Americans' food and healthcare, holding back billionaires and monopolies from owning everything we have, stopping ICE from kidnapping and killing our neighbors, and putting guardrails on big tech as they force feed us an AI future that none of us want. And those right now are the most important issues. So if we can agree on those, maybe the people we elected can do something about it. Now we just have to hold them accountable, because there is no time to wait.
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the only people that had as rough of a night as Republicans: trans people. Clearly the direct targeted attacks on candidates surrounding trans people didn't work, but the initiatives to take away rights from them clearly did. I'm going to take a little more time to gather my thoughts on this because I want to make a much more organized post on the matter. I think it might be good to wait to see how these get brought up in the next few weeks and see how some of them shake out that still haven't been called yet.
I really don't think the mood should be sour though even with some hurt mixed in. Keep up the good fight, and take a deep breath and smile, America! You've earned it!
